New Hampshire primary

The New Hampshire primary is the first in a series of nationwide political party primary elections held in the United States every four years (although the Iowa caucus is held earlier), as part of the process of choosing the Democratic and Republican nominees for the presidential elections to be held the subsequent November.

Although only a few delegates are chosen in the New Hampshire primary, its real importance comes from the massive media coverage it receives (along with Iowa, which holds the first caucuses); in recent years the two states received about as much media attention as all other state primaries combined. An example of this massive media coverage has been seen on the campus of Saint Anselm College, as the campus has held multiple national debates and have attracted media outlets like Fox News, CNN, NBC, and ABC. The publicity and momentum can be enormous from a decisive win by a frontrunner, or better-than-expected result in the New Hampshire primary. The upset or weak showing by a front-runner changes the calculus of national politics in a matter of hours, as happened in 1952 (D), 1968 (D), 1980 (R), and 2008 (D).

Since 1952, the primary has been a major testing ground for candidates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly frequently drop out, while lesser-known, underfunded candidates who do well in New Hampshire suddenly become serious contenders, garnering large amounts of media attention and campaign funding.

It is not a closed primary, in which votes can be cast in a party primary only by people registered with that party. Undeclared voters — those not registered with any party — can vote in either party primary. However, it does not meet a common definition of an open primary, because people registered as Republican or Democrat on voting day cannot cast ballots in the primary of the other party.^[1]

Timing

The scheduled date of the New Hampshire primary always officially starts out as the second Tuesday in March, which is the date when town meetings and non-partisan municipal elections are traditionally held. New Hampshire law stipulates (in section RSA 653:9 of the statute book) that the Secretary of State can change the date to ensure that the New Hampshire primary will take place at least seven days before any "similar election" in any other state. The Iowa caucuses are not considered to be a similar election. In recent election cycles, the New Hampshire primary has taken place the week after the Iowa caucus.

New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary status was threatened in 2007, when both the Republican and Democratic National Committees moved to give more populous states a bigger influence in the presidential race.^[2]

Several states also sought to move up the dates of their 2008 primaries in order to have more influence and dilute the power of the New Hampshire primary.^[3] Originally held in March, the date of the New Hampshire primary has been moved up repeatedly to maintain its status as first. The 2008 primary was held on January 8.

Significance

There is consensus among scholars and pundits that the New Hampshire primary, because of the timing and the vast media attention, can have a great impact and may even make or break or revive a candidate.^[4] Controlling for other factors statistically, a win in New Hampshire increases a candidate's share of the final primary count in all states by 27 percentage points.^[5]

Since 1977, New Hampshire has fought hard to keep its timing as the first primary (while Iowa has the first caucus a few days sooner.) State law requires that its primary must be the first in the nation (it had been the first by tradition since 1920).^[6] As a result, the state has moved its primary earlier in the year to remain the first. The primary was held on the following dates: 1952-1968, second Tuesday in March; 1972, first Tuesday in March; 1976-1984, fourth Tuesday in February; 1988-1996, third Tuesday in February; 2000, first Tuesday in February (February 1); 2004, fourth Tuesday in January (January 27). The shifts have been to compete with changing primary dates in other states. The primary date for 2008 continued the trend; it was held January 8, the second Tuesday in January.

Before the Iowa caucus first received national attention in the 1970s (Republicans began caucusing in Iowa in 1976), the New Hampshire primary was the first binding indication of which presidential candidate would receive the party nomination. In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Governor John H. Sununu in 1988.^[7]

Since then, the primary has been considered an early measurement of the national attitude toward the candidates for nomination. Unlike a caucus, the primary measures the number of votes each candidate received directly, rather than through precinct delegates. The popular vote gives lesser-known candidates a chance to demonstrate their appeal to the electorate at large.

Unlike most other states, New Hampshire permits voters that have not declared their party affiliation to vote in a party's primary. A voter does have to officially join one party or the other before voting; however the voter can change his or her affiliation back to "Undeclared" immediately after voting, and hence he or she only has to belong to a party for the few minutes it takes to fill out and cast a ballot. Voters who are already a member of one party or the other cannot change their affiliation at the polling place: that can only be done before the checklist is closed several weeks prior to the election. New voters can, however, register at the polling place.^[1] All voting is done with paper ballots; however, most of the paper ballots are counted by machine.

New Hampshire's status as the first in the nation is somewhat controversial among Democrats because the ethnic makeup of the state is not diverse and not representative of the country's voters.^[8] This is shown in the 2000 Census data, with the ratio of minority residents being six times smaller than the national average (New Hampshire is 96% non-Hispanic white, versus 75% nationally). Politically however, the state does offer a wide sampling of different types of voters. Although it is a New England state, it is not as liberal as some of its neighbors. For example, according to one exit poll, of those who participated in the 2004 Democratic Primary, 4-in-10 voters were independents, and just over 50% said they considered themselves "liberal." Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. Also, New Hampshire was the only state in the Northeast to vote for George W. Bush in 2000. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.

Recently, media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves; meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992, Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid"; the extra media attention helped his campaign's visibility in later primaries.^[9]

New Hampshire's political importance as the first in the nation primary state is highlighted in the documentary film Winning New Hampshire. The film focuses on John Kerry's comeback in 2004 and the decisive effect of the New Hampshire Primary on the Presidential selection process.

The last three presidents (Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama) finished second in the New Hampshire Primary before later being elected to the presidency, while the previous 4 before that (excluding Ford, who was not elected) won the New Hampshire Primary.

History

New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916, but it did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952 after NH simplified its ballot access laws in 1949 seeking to boost voter turnout, when Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican," who had been favored for the nomination, and Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President Harry S. Truman, leading Truman to abandon his campaign for a second term of his own.

The other President to be forced from running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was Lyndon Johnson, who, as a write-in candidate, managed only a 49-42 percent victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968 (and won fewer delegates than McCarthy), and consequently withdrew from the race.^[10]

The winner in New Hampshire has not always gone on to win their party's nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans Harold Stassen in 1948, Henry Cabot Lodge in 1964, Pat Buchanan in 1996, and John McCain in 2000 and Democrats Estes Kefauver in 1952 and 1956, Paul Tsongas in 1992, and Hillary Clinton in 2008.

Before 1992, the person elected president had always carried the primary, but Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did George W. Bush in 2000, and Barack Obama in 2008. In 1992, Clinton lost to Paul Tsongas in New Hampshire; in 2000, George W. Bush lost to John McCain in New Hampshire; and in 2008 Barack Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in the New Hampshire primary.

1968

The 1968 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was one of the crucial events in the politics of that landmark year in United States history. Senator Eugene McCarthy began his campaign with a poem that he wrote in imitation of the poet Robert Lowell, "Are you running with me Jesus":

I'm not matching my stride

With Billy Graham's by the Clyde

I'm not going for distance

With the Senator's persistence

I'm not trying to win a race

even at George Romney's pace.

I'm an existential runner,

Indifferent to space

I'm running here in place ...

Are you with me Jesus? ^[11]

In November 1967, McCarthy declared, "there comes a time when an honorable man simply has to raise the flag" to gauge the country's response and conduct a candidacy for the presidency of the United States by entering the New Hampshire Democratic primary.

On March 12, 1968, McCarthy came within 7 percentage points of defeating President Lyndon Johnson in New Hampshire. Johnson subsequently withdrew from the election with this Shermanesque statement: "I shall not seek, and will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."

2012

The New Hampshire Presidential Primary Election is scheduled to be held on Tuesday January 10, 2012.^[12]

2008

2004 Democratic results

Sources: Union-Leader (Manchester, NH), CNN, New Hampshire Department of State

2004 Republican results

Sources: Concord Monitor, New Hampshire Department of State, [1], [2], [3]

2000 Democratic results

Source: CNN; Official returns at OurCampaigns.com

2000 Republican results

Source: CNN

Winners and runners-up

Notes: Winner is listed first. Candidates in bold went on to win their party's nomination.

Democrats

• 1948: Unpledged delegates
• 1944: Unpledged delegates
• 1940: Unpledged delegates
• 1936: Unpledged delegates
• 1932: Unpledged delegates
• 1928: Unpledged delegates
• 1924: Unpledged delegates
• 1920: Unpledged delegates
• 1916: President T. Woodrow Wilson (unopposed)

Republicans

* - write-in candidate

• 1944: Unpledged delegates
• 1940: Unpledged delegates
• 1936: Unpledged delegates
• 1932: Unpledged delegates
• 1928: Unpledged delegates
• 1924: President John Calvin Coolidge, Jr. (unopposed)
• 1920: General Leonard Wood, Jr. defeated Senator Hiram W. Johnson
• 1916: Unpledged delegates

Vice-Presidential results

A Vice-Presidential preference primary was also formerly held at the New Hampshire Primary. New Hampshire State Senator Jack Barnes, who won the 2008 Republican contest, co-sponsored a bill in 2009 which would eliminate the Vice Presidential preference ballot. The bill passed both houses of the state legislature and will take effect in 2012. ^[13]

The only time a non-incumbent won the Vice Presidential primary and then went on to be formally nominated by his or her party was in 2004, when Democratic U.S. Senator John Edwards won as a write-in candidate. (Edwards, who was running for President at the time, did not actively solicit Vice Presidential votes.)

In 1968, the sitting Vice President Hubert Humphrey won the Democratic Vice Presidential primary, and then later won the Presidential nomination after the sitting President Lyndon B. Johnson dropped out of the race.

The following candidates received the greatest number of votes at each election.

* - write-in candidate

Sources: New Hampshire Department of State, New Hampshire Political Library

See also

• United States presidential primary
• United States presidential election
• United States presidential election debates
• American presidential debate
• United States presidential nominating convention
• United States Electoral College

Early Votes

• Ames (Iowa) Straw Poll on a Saturday in August prior to the election year, since 1979
• Iowa caucus first official election year event since 1972

Reform Plans

• United States presidential primary reform proposals
• Graduated Random Presidential Primary System
• Delaware Plan
• Rotating Regional Primary System
• Interregional Primary Plan
• National Primary

References

• Winning New Hampshire, a film on the history and significance of the NH Primary, 2004
• The New Hampshire Political Library
• 2004 primary results (CNN)
• 2000 primary results (CNN)
• http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/7812403.htm
• http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/09/powerlines-meyerson.php
• http://www.nhprimary.com Local coverage of the primary from The Telegraph of Nashua, NH.
• http://www.nhelects.com Local coverage of the primary from The Keene Sentinel of Keene, NH.
• Social Media coverage of the New Hampshire by the Creepy Sleepy podcast
• Radio Row Coverage of the New Hampshire Primary by the Talk Radio News Service and Ellen Ratner
• Germond, Jack. "A Cold, Hard Look", Washingtonian, January 1, 2008. Retrieved on 2008-01-09.

External links

• Booknotes interview with Dayton Duncan on Grass Roots: One Year in the Life of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary, March 31, 1991.

Notes